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VOL. 12, ISSUE 4 (2026)
Comparative analysis of GST and its impact on GDP growth: Evidence from India, Canada, Australia and Malaysia
Authors
Sangamesh Ainapur, Dr. Bhoopendra Bharti
Abstract
This paper compares India's GST with the GST/VAT systems of Canada,
Australia and Malaysia and uses statistics to test how GDP growth behaved
around the time each was introduced. Using IMF World Economic Outlook data
updated to 2025 [5], we combine descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis (with
a heat map), Welch t-tests and one-way ANOVA. Average growth in the GST years
was about 0.8-0.9 percentage points lower than in the preceding five years in
all four countries, but with so few observations none of these differences is
statistically significant at the 5% level (smallest p = 0.07, Australia).
Growth rates are strongly correlated across the four countries over 2013-2025
(r = 0.72-0.93), but this is driven by the COVID-19 shock: excluding 2020-21,
India's growth is essentially uncorrelated with the others (r = −0.09 to 0.24),
while Canada, Australia and Malaysia move together (r = 0.63-0.79). Australia's
single-rate GST was followed by the steadiest growth (no contraction; long-run
standard deviation 0.9 percentage points), whereas India's multi-slab system
saw a deeper slowdown (8.3% in 2016 to 3.9% in 2019) before a post-pandemic
recovery to 7.1-7.6% in 2022-2025. The link between the number of tax slabs and
growth volatility is positive but weak and not statistically significant (r =
0.23-0.73, n = 4). The paper closes with policy recommendations, including a
look at India's September 2025 move to a two-rate structure.
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Pages:183-189
How to cite this article:
Sangamesh Ainapur, Dr. Bhoopendra Bharti "Comparative analysis of GST and its impact on GDP growth: Evidence from India, Canada, Australia and Malaysia". International Journal of Commerce and Management Research, Vol 12, Issue 4, 2026, Pages 183-189
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